TWO DAYS TO GO – AT 11:48 A.M. ET:  What do we know?  Not much that's new.   Looks like it will be a close election in the popular vote.  Clinton is only ahead by 1.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls in a two-way race, 2.2 points in a four-way race. 

For four days running the IBD/TIFF poll showed a dead heat.  This morning it has Trump up by one.  The Washington Post/ABC poll has been all over the place, and now shows Clinton up by five.  The L.A. Times poll shows Trump up by five.  Go figure.

None of it matters.  It's the states that count.  The electoral vote.  Most pollsters give Clinton a pretty good edge in the electoral vote, but there's clearly a sense of unease about the predictions.  Donald Trump and Mike Pence will be in Minnesota today, a generally safe Democratic state.  They wouldn't both be going unless internal polling gives the ticket a reasonable shot.

There are reports of a surge in Hispanic voting, something that would benefit Hillary Clinton.  There are also reports about a substantial dip in the black vote, something that would hurt her.  Overall, Trump has been making progress in many state polls.  Whether he has the time between now and Tuesday to overtake Clinton is the big question.  Turnout will decide that.  Historically, time has run out on many candidates who have been gaining as election day neared.  The classic example is Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who was gaining on Richard Nixon as the 1968 election approached, but lost by a hair.  It's widely believed (but cannot be proved) that, had the campaign gone on another week, Humphrey would have won.

Three days from today we'll be using "President-elect" to describe either Trump or Clinton.

November 6,  2016